Solve the youth housing crisis + protect the Greenbelt: how Alex did the math

Dec 7, 2023

Alex Hempel smiling. — *Photo by Adriano Macedo*

As a kid, Alex Hempel (BA 2017 TRIN, MA 2018) noticed condos multiplying along the Gardiner Expressway. Wondering why led him, years later—in the midst of an unprecedented housing crisis for students—to his PhD research in economics. Delving into how policies like the Ontario Greenbelt affect housing supply, he’s also proposing creative solutions to solve our housing woes without touching the protected land.

Alex tells us his story, from how he fell for economics to what it means to receive a scholarship founded by people in his own industry.

I liked math, but I also liked public policy and issues in the world.

That’s why I applied to general Arts and Sciences for my undergrad, to have a richer blend of those two interests. I ended up doing a double major in both economics and European studies and it was great. U of T makes the learning experience pretty amazing because you can take classes on almost anything.

Without a couple of those classes, I would probably not be here today.

I had some excellent instructors and they really made economics interesting. Statistics. Macroeconomics, which isn’t even an area I study now, but that talked about political implications and how to think about things. It made me want to pursue graduate school.

The master’s degree turned out to be one of the best years of my life. Now with the PhD I’ve transitioned into independent research. It’s been exciting to start getting results and it’s exciting to think about future research pathways.

I ran simulations, and they showed you can completely offset the impact from the Greenbelt. This would be a win-win for everyone.

I’d always been interested in the unintended consequences of public policy on people’s lives.

The rise in housing prices is felt so acutely by everyone in Toronto, but especially by students and young people. I thought about driving down the Gardiner Expressway, and how the number of condos in that stretch is so different today from when I was a kid. And I thought about the Greenbelt policy—this was before the scandal broke!—and said to myself, ‘is there a link?’ There wasn’t a lot of research on those types of policies, so I saw an opportunity to contribute to the literature on the determinants of housing construction and housing price changes.

The Greenbelt policy has amounted to an additional restriction on building without sufficient other changes.

And when we did that, it did lead to increases in housing prices and housing quantities. My research answered that question: yes, the Greenbelt does have an impact.

But it doesn’t have to.

It’s very simple. If you’re going to block people from building housing in one location, you need to allow them to build somewhere else. I ran simulations, and they showed that if you make it a little bit easier to build more condominiums within the city, you can completely offset the impact from the Greenbelt. This would be a win-win for everyone. We can continue to protect this environmentally sensitive land while also helping with housing affordability.

Housing is a difficult political issue because it has two sides.

That part of my research speaks to why the policy environment that we have has persisted. Everyone can understand that affordability is a problem for people with low incomes. The flip side is that increases in housing prices are good for a lot of people as well. People whose housing values are increasing often don’t like to see policy changes that increase housing supply, because some people’s property values might also fall.

In my undergrad, I worked at a curling club to make money.

And now I’ve been curling for the last five to six years. I also like to play other sports like Ultimate Frisbee and hockey. And I was the co-president of the Graduate Economics Union for a year, where we organized events, trivia nights and barbecues. So I’ve always enjoyed getting involved in the community.

The Royal Bank Graduate Fellowship in Public and Economic Policy helped me have a great experience in grad school.

It came at a time when I was transitioning into my master’s program. I could pursue my studies without worrying about having to work at the curling club all the time and that was actually incredibly helpful. If I had to be working nights and weekends during my master’s, maybe I would not have been spurred into pursuing my PhD.

To receive an award from RBC, which is a prestigious Canadian institution and one where I could see myself working one day, is an incredible honour.

It’s also good to see that people in your industry care about what you’re researching.

With scholarships in general, it’s always nice to be recognized for academic achievement. But also, without scholarships, it’s literally hard to survive. As my research highlights, the need for support has never been greater than it is right now, when an apartment in Toronto costs twice as much as tuition does.

To receive an award from RBC, which is a prestigious Canadian institution and one where I could see myself working one day, is an incredible honour. I’m greatly appreciative.

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